Are you filling out your bracket the right way? ‘Flip it on its head,’ professor says

Expect to hear from a lot of people saying they had a “gut feeling” about this upset or that national title contender this week, as friends and coworkers scour the NCAA basketball tournament bracket ahead of all the games on Thursday and Friday.

But three weeks from now when they finish near the bottom of the office pool, no one will remember all the bravado. And next year, they probably won’t remember how many of those coworkers who went with their gut and found it didn’t pay off.

Because it turns out that many people are doing their picks all wrong. What’s the right way?

“Flip it on its head, fill out the bracket from the inside out,” said University of Illinois computer science professor Sheldon Jacobson. He used AI and past tournament results to determine “the best round to start with, it told us, was … the Elite Eight or the Final Four.”

“If you start with those teams and then build the bracket out from there, you’re more likely to come up with a bracket that makes more sense,” he said.

Could AI guide your bracket?

Jacobson’s webpage has an AI simulator that will help you fill in your bracket based on all the historical data from past tournaments.

“It sets the probabilities in the appropriate balance to give you the greatest chance to have a sensible bracket,” he attests.

Starting with the first round and working in toward the championship means that if you pick that upset you’re absolutely certain about, and it doesn’t come through, your bracket is all wrecked.

“We like to put upsets in because we want to have bragging rights of being able to have called that 14 upset over a three (seed),” he said. “However, that doesn’t help your bracket very much when that three (seed) ends up in the Final Four. So think about your Final Four and then move around from it, or think about your Elite Eight and move around from that.”

He points out that since 1985, the eventual national champion has been one of the top seeds in their region. All but three winners were one of the top four seeds in their region.

“So the top 16 teams in the country going into the tournament have the greatest chance of winning the National Championship,” he said. “Go with history. Go with the odds.”

But, obviously, upsets happen.

Everyone loves to talk about the history of matchups between 12 and 5-seeded teams, but in recent years, that trend has shifted to 11-seeded teams beating 6-seeds. In fact, he said over the last 13 tournaments, 11-seeds have winning records against 6-seeds.

And more 11-seeds have gone to the Final Four than teams seeded 6-10. That included North Carolina State just last year.

And who could forget Virginia Commonwealth University in 2011 and George Mason in 2006? Those Final Four runs were also made as 11-seeds.

Things to consider

What else should you keep in mind?

“You’re going to get a double digit upset into the Sweet 16, very frequently,” Jacobson said. “Whether it’s going to be an 11 or a 10 (seed), you’re going to see that happening.”

Maybe it’s worth noting that VCU is a No. 11 seed once again this year. So is Drake University, a school also getting a lot of love.

The first of 67 games will tip off on Thursday. By April 7, 67 of the 68 teams that made the initial bracket this week will have ended their season with a loss, and one winner will remain.

“Have fun with the tournament,” he said. “It’s the greatest sporting event of the year. So many people come together to have fun and engage with each other all over these little games that we play.”

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