When Rep. Mike Lawler couldn’t make it to an annual Albany roast this year of politicians and the press, he sent a parody video instead.
The last line, played not long after Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul left the stage, turned a few heads.
“I wish I could’ve been with you in person and shared some laughs,” the Hudson Valley Republican said. “But we’ll have plenty of time for that when I’m governor in a couple of years.”
The quip reminded the Democrats in the room of a growing GOP threat: While Hochul lags in the polls and Democrats struggle to connect with voters on issues like affordability and immigration, Lawler has his eye on higher office.
From his seat in Washington, the recently re-elected congressmember hasn’t been afraid to weigh in on state-level decisions that directly affect New Yorkers – like asking President-elect Donald Trump to kill a paused congestion toll that Hochul is soon set to revive at a lower rate. After handily winning in a blue-leaning suburban district, Lawler has positioned himself as a leading candidate for the Republican nod for governor in 2026.
And Trump may have done him a major, if coincidental, favor: He tapped two other top New York Republicans, Rep. Elise Stefanik and former Rep. Lee Zeldin, for roles in his administration this week, making it less likely they seek the gubernatorial nomination themselves.
In an interview on WNYC’s “Morning Edition” on Wednesday, Lawler said he’s focused on his role in Congress. But he also said he’ll “take a look at” running for governor, though he hasn’t made any final determinations.
“We lead the nation in outmigration,” Lawler said. “People cannot afford to live in New York. We have quality-of-life issues with the migrant crisis. Crime continues to be a major challenge. We have a housing shortage in New York, as we do across the country. And frankly, I think Gov. Hochul has been ineffective at best.”
Lawler, 38, of Rockland County, has been a frequent critic of Hochul’s administration, particularly on the issues of crime and dealing with New York City’s migrant influx. The staunch opponent of congestion pricing in Manhattan took credit when Hochul paused the toll in June — and criticized her on Wednesday as it became apparent she would soon unpause it, albeit at a lower rate.
The Democratic governor has drawn ire from all sides of the congestion pricing fight, and her poll numbers remain low. Hochul insists she’s running for re-election, but she remains vulnerable to a challenge — from within her party or from a Republican.
“I think that anybody who underestimates how angry voters are should lose,” said Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, a Staten Island Republican who has been a vocal critic of the governor. “They just don’t care what the people they were elected to represent think. And it’s that type of arrogance that has pissed off New Yorkers, and why you saw Donald Trump surge.”
Lawler, who won last Tuesday alongside Trump, has steadily risen through the Republican ranks in New York. He started off as an intern for John McCain’s presidential campaign in 2008 before becoming state GOP Chair Ed Cox’s special assistant and driver. From there, he became an up-and-coming political strategist, serving as Republican Rob Astorino’s campaign manager when he ran for governor in 2014. He made his first run for elected office in 2020, defeating longtime Democratic Assemblymember Ellen Jaffee.
In 2022, he was elected to Congress after an upset victory over Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who led the House Democrats’ re-election efforts nationwide. Last week, Lawler defeated former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones by 7 points.
His winning electoral record, combined with his own gibes about higher-office aspirations, have long fueled speculation that he would mount a challenge against Hochul.
Gerard Kassar, chair of the state Conservative Party, a small but influential third party that often partners with Republicans, said he has not yet discussed a potential gubernatorial run with Lawler, but he’d like to.
“I think extraordinarily highly of him,” he said. “I’ve known him for many, many years and if that’s something he wants to look at, I think I’d love to engage in some conversations with him. But it hasn’t happened yet.”
Lawler has fashioned himself as a moderate who is tough on crime and immigration but acknowledges climate change is real and that Trump lost the 2020 election.
But Democrats say he’s entering a new chapter of hyper-partisan politics in Washington that could make his middle-of-the-road branding untenable — a crucial hitch en route to the Executive Mansion.
“It’s great to say something in a campaign … but how did you vote?” state Democratic Party Chair Jay Jacobs said. “And as the governor will have a record to run on, [Lawler] will have a record to run on, and he’s going to have to answer for that.”
A spokesperson for Hochul’s campaign declined to comment.
Any Republican would face an uphill battle in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1, and where no GOP candidate has won statewide office since 2002, when Gov. George Pataki — another Hudson Valley Republican — won his third term.
Republicans and conservatives, however, still see an opportunity, and Democratic leaders say it would be wise to take it seriously.
Zeldin, whom Trump tapped on Monday to lead the Environmental Protection Agency, ran a competitive race against Hochul in 2022, losing by fewer than 6 points. Trump, meanwhile, made significant gains in deep-blue New York City in this year’s election — which is key to any Republican’s chance at winning statewide.
“The success that Republicans had in this particular cycle is sending a much louder message than the near miss of [Lee] Zeldin in 2022,” said former Gov. David Paterson, a Democrat.
Hochul has the advantage of incumbency and is skilled at raising money for her campaign. But she’s consistently seen poor poll numbers in recent months. In October, 36% of likely New York state voters said they had a favorable view of the governor, according to a Siena College poll.
Lawler’s spokesperson Nate Soule said the representative “appreciates the encouragement he’s received to consider higher office, and he’s listening.” But Soule said Lawler’s focus remains on his work in Congress.
Lawler, however, hasn’t hesitated to occasionally fan the flames.
He took to social media Monday after the Sumitomo Rubber company abruptly announced it would shut down its facility in the Buffalo area, wiping out 1,500 jobs in Hochul’s home turf.
“The only way we can change things for the better in our state is by changing governors,” Lawler posted Monday on X. “We must make that happen in 2026.”
On WNYC on Wednesday, Lawler ticked off a list of areas that he sees ripe for improvement in New York. When host Michael Hill noted he was sounding like a gubernatorial candidate, Lawler said: “We’ll see what happens in the future.”
