All eyes will be on Pennsylvania tonight. But when it comes to what to watch for in the state once most polls close at 8 p.m. ET, not all Pennsylvania counties are equal.
Some are worth watching based on both campaigns’ activity there and the narratives they’ve sought to boost. Others are top of mind for insiders because of speedy counting or consequential electorates.
Allegheny County
Nearly every Pennsylvania official or operative NBC News spoke with over the past two weeks mentioned Allegheny County as the first they’d look to in order to get a sense of how the state is shaking out.
Home to Pittsburgh, Allegheny County went for Biden by over 20 points in 2020. A margin of 20-or-more points this year would signal a strong likelihood of a Harris victory in the state. The county also in 2022 was able to count its mail-in ballots quickly, which is part of why insiders are eyeing it tonight. That and because Allegheny County outvoted Philadelphia County in 2022 and had a significantly higher turnout rate.
“Allegheny County tends to get their mailing quickly, which is remarkable to me,” said state Rep. Josh Kail, chair of the state House Republican campaign committee. “I understand Philadelphia has 1.5 million people, but Allegheny County is actually about the same size. … Allegheny County margins will tell a story.”
Cambria County
Democrats have made a greater push in rural Pennsylvania this cycle, and nowhere has that been more apparent than Cambria County, where Harris and other top surrogates, including former President Bill Clinton, have visited. Trump too held a rally here. So it’s a good test case for whether Democrats actually can cut into Trump’s significant advantage in these red counties.
Cambria County extended its voting hours til 10 p.m. on Tuesday after a software malfunction kept voters from submitting their ballots this morning.
Montgomery County
This could really be any of the collar counties around Philadelphia, but let’s go with the biggest one. Again, this is a question of just how big Harris wins by. If she exceeds Biden’s 26-point margin of victory, it’d be hard to imagine her falling in the state. But that was a massive victory for Biden in 2020, and Harris is banking on additional Republican defectors trending her way to build upon it. Should those margins grow smaller here, it’s a signal that suburbs across the Keystone State are trending toward Trump.
