With one week until Texas candidates must file their campaign paperwork, some races remain up in the air and are likely to prompt decisions to be made right up to the 6 p.m. deadline on Monday, Dec. 8.
Democrats in North Texas are waiting for the U.S. Supreme Court to take further action after Justice Samuel Alito filed an administrative stay in the ongoing Texas redistricting case, which temporarily reinstated the 2025 Congressional maps approved by Republicans this summer that could give them an extra five seats.
Alito’s stay reinstates GOP-backed maps — for now
Alito’s stay set aside the Nov. 18 ruling by two federal judges in El Paso who blocked the 2025 maps, saying Texas Republicans illegally racially gerrymandered the districts and that the maps approved in 2021 would stay in place for next year’s elections.
Because of the pending Supreme Court decision, Democrats in North Texas, in particular, are uncertain about which Congressional Districts they will run in for next year’s important mid-term elections. But there’s another reason too.
Early polls show Crockett leading packed Democratic field
U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas is strongly considering running for U.S. Senate. Over the weekend, she said she is closer to a “yes” than a “no.”
Crockett came in first during a hypothetical Democratic primary poll at the beginning of October by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University. She had 31%, compared to State Rep. James Talarico of Austin and former El Paso Congressman Beto O’Rourke, who tied at 25%, and former Dallas Congressman Colin Allred at 13%; 6% were unsure.
While Talarico and Allred have launched their own campaigns, O’Rourke is unlikely to run.
Crockett told CBS News Texas last month that she was waiting for her own polling results to return — and was looking beyond the primary and focused on the general election against the Republicans, either incumbent John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, or Congressman Wesley Hunt of Houston.
“Obviously, I would run and run hard, but the trends are clear as it relates to a primary,” Crockett said last month. “I am most concerned about who is best suited in the general election, and not running a general election and saying, ‘Oh, we’re going to get all these Republicans to cross over.’ I don’t believe in this mythical crossover. I think that’s the only way that we win in Texas is if we have a candidate that can add to the electorate. If the electorate remains the same electorate that we’ve had over the last 30 years, then I think we’re going to end up with the same result.”
SMU Political Science Professor Matthew Wilson told CBS News Texas that Crockett would be a force for Allred and Talarico to reckon with in the primary, but not an automatic winner.
“I wouldn’t, if I were her, take it for granted that she would win the Democratic primary,” Wilson said. “I mean, certainly she’s going to be a viable contender, but there are other viable contenders who have already thrown their hats in the ring.”
As for the general election, Wilson said while Crockett may believe the only way she can win is by attracting new people to the polls and expanding the electorate, the other Democratic Senate candidates may believe they can win by attracting Republicans and Independents.
“Both Allred and Talarico, I think, would press, very vigorously, electability arguments against Jasmine Crockett,” said Wilson. “I think their arguments would be that they have a better chance of actually winning the seat for the Democrats than does Congresswoman Crockett.”
Democrats face musical chairs under new 2025 map
If she doesn’t run for U.S. Senate, Crockett will have to decide which Congressional District to run in.
While she represents the 30th Congressional District, her home is now in the 33rd Congressional District, and she has previously said she was unsure about where to run.
Under the new map, the 30th Congressional District includes more people from Tarrant County than now. She and other Democratic members of Congress in North Texas, Julie Johnson of Farmers Branch and Marc Veasey of Fort Worth, are facing a game of political musical chairs. That’s because under the 2025 maps, there will likely only be two Democrats in the Dallas-Fort Worth area who will serve in Congress.
Johnson has said she will run for the 33rd Congressional District if the new map holds. Veasey currently represents the 33rd Congressional District, which will only be in Dallas County under the new map. He has filed his campaign paperwork in that district.
New GOP contenders emerge for the 32nd Congressional District
Republicans are also following the Congressional races very closely.
The 32nd Congressional District, a likely Republican pick-up under the 2025 maps, has attracted two candidates: Darrell Day, who ran last year, and Ryan Binkley, who ran for president last year. State Rep. Katrina Pierson, R-Rockwall, previously told CBS News Texas that she is considering entering the primary.
Punchbowl News reported Monday that longtime California Congressman Darrell Issa is also considering running for this seat in North Texas because he was drawn out of his San Diego area district.
Watch Eye On Politics at 7:30 Sunday morning on CBS News Texas on air and streaming
