The 1-Minute Market Report September 15, 2024
In this brief market report, we look at the various asset classes, sectors, equity categories, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and stocks that moved the market higher and the market segments that defied the trend by moving lower.
Identifying the pockets of strength and weakness allows us to see the direction of significant money flows and their origin.
The rebound gets back on track.
After a weak start, September is back in rally mode. The rally over the week just past brought us back to within 0.7% of the all-time high. Here’s a look at the last 4 weeks.
A look at monthly returns.
This chart shows the monthly returns for the past year. September got off to a shaky start but last week’s rally erased nearly all of the red ink.
The following chart shows the average S&P 500 return in each month between January 1928 and December 2023.
A closer look at the recent bout of volatility.
Here is a closer look at the July-September volatility, using a drawdown chart. The maximum drawdown so far was 8.5% from the peak on July 16.
A look at the bull run since it began last October.
This chart highlights the 57.3% gain in the S&P 500 from the October 2022 low through Friday’s close. We have risen above the trendline but it looks like we may be headed for another volatile couple of weeks.
Major asset class performance.
Here is a look at the performance of the major asset classes, sorted by last week’s returns. I also included the returns since the October 12, 2022 low for additional context.
Blockchain stocks had a great week as Bitcoin reversed course and gained 10% on the week. The rest of the asset classes I track were in the black, except for volatility.
Equity sector performance
For this report, I use the expanded sectors as published by Zacks. They use 16 sectors rather than the standard 11. This gives us added granularity as we survey the winners and losers.
Every sector, save Energy, was up. Technology stocks led the way, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Home Builders.
Equity group performance
For the groups, I separate the stocks in the S&P 1500 Composite Index by shared characteristics like growth, value, size, cyclical, defensive, and domestic vs. foreign.
The top group was the Mag 7. Small caps did well, and investors were rotating out of value and into growth.
The S&P Mag 7
Here is a look at the seven mega-cap stocks that have been leading the market over the past year. These seven stocks account for 55% of the total YTD gain in the S&P 500. That’s down from 87% at the start of the year, providing evidence that participation in the bull market is broadening. Nvidia shined while Apple struggled to keep up.
The S&P Top 7 dominance is fading.
The 10 best-performing ETFs from last week
Palladium stocks finally caught a bid. Bitcoin rallied nicely and gold miners did well. Semiconductors rallied, led by Nvidia.
The 10 worst-performing ETFs from last week
Energy had a rough week. Carbon Credits also saw some selling.
The 10 best-performing stocks from last week
Here are the 10 best-performing stocks in the S&P 1500 last week. Emergent
Shares of Netgear (NTGR) surged on revised outlook and litigation settlement. Sleep Number (SNBR) rallied on insider buying.
The 10 worst-performing stocks from last week
Here are the 10 worst-performing stocks in the S&P 1500 last week. ModivCare (MODV) lost more than half its market value after the healthcare-services company said the collection of outstanding receivables from customers had been delayed, and that it was seeking additional capital.
Final thoughts
This market is not for the faint of heart. What began the notoriously weak month of September was a fairly large air pocket, especially for Tech and specifically for Semiconductors. But then the bargain hunters showed up and brought us all the way back to within a whisker of the record high.
I expect this volatility to stick around as election season enters its final innings. I expect that we’ll make a new high next week, but there doesn’t seem to be much enthusiasm to chase the big tech names. So, I think the upside will be limited by investor anxiety.
The Mag 7 led the way higher this week, with Small Caps not far behind. Large Cap Value and Defensive stocks gained but lagged the rest of the crowd.
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