Kazakh experts are due to arrive on December 27 to examine the crash site and black box of the ill-fated Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet, as speculation – and evidence – mounted suggesting that a Russian air defense missile may have inadvertently struck the craft.
Even as the probe intensifies, countries with victims aboard the plane – Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Kyrgyzstan — continue to mourn their dead and treat the injured among the 67 passengers and crew who were aboard when the Embraer 190 aircraft fell from the sky on December 25.
The plane went down on a scheduled flight from the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, to Grozny in Russia’s Chechnya region after it was diverted and attempted an emergency landing near the city of Aqtau in western Kazakhstan, killing 38 and injuring 29, many with severe burns suffered in the flaming crash.
Speculation swirled around the tragedy, with some experts pointing to holes seen in the plane’s tail section as a possible sign that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems engaged in thwarting Ukrainian drone attacks.
A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told news agencies that indications suggest a Russian antiaircraft system struck the airliner, although the official provided no details.
Canada expressed concerns about reports that Russian air defenses may have caused the crash.
“We call on Russia to allow for an open and transparent investigation into the incident and to accept its findings,” the Canadian Global Affairs office said on X.
Evidence, yet to be corroborated by authorities, includes footage from inside the plane before the crash, images of the planes hole-pocked tail section after the crash, a survivor’s comments, and accounts indicating that there was a suspected drone attack around the time the plane apparently tried to land in Grozny.
Reuters quoted an Azerbaijani source familiar with the investigation as saying results indicated the plane was hit by a Pantsir-S air defense system, a self-propelled antiaircraft gun and missile system designed by Russia.
It was not immediately clear where the black box would be examined. The process can be highly technical, and not all countries have the resources to undertake such work.
Gulag Aslanli, a leader of Azerbaijan’s opposition Musavat movement, told RFE/RL that an international commission was needed to investigate the incident.
“Russia cannot be allowed there,” he said. “If the black box is going to be taken to Russia and examined there, I will look at its outcome with suspicion.”
Talgat Lastaev, Kazakhstan’s vice minister of transport, told RFE/RL that experts are scheduled to arrive at the site on December 27 to assess the next steps regarding the black box.
Officials said it typically takes about two weeks to fully assess a black box, although various conditions can alter that time frame.
Commenting on unconfirmed reports that the plane may have been shot down by a missile, Kazakh Senate Speaker Maulen Ashimbaev said it was “not possible” to say what may have damaged the aircraft until the investigation is finished.
“Real experts are looking at all this and they will make their conclusions. Neither Kazakhstan, Russia, nor Azerbaijan, of course, is interested in hiding information, it will be brought to the public,” Ashimbaev said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made a similar comment, saying: “We need to await the end of the investigation.” It was “wrong” to speculate before the investigators gave their findings, Peskov added.
Russia’s Interfax news agency quoted officials as saying the plane, commissioned in 2013, had passed a maintenance check in October and that the pilot had “vast experience,” with more than 15,000 flying hours.
Azerbaijan Airlines President Samir Rzayev also told reporters the plane had been fully serviced in October and that there was no sign of technical malfunction.
But he said it was too early to determine a cause: “The plane has been found with a black box. After detailed research, all aspects will be clear.”
The airline suspended flights along the route of the crash pending completion of the investigation.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also said it was too early to determine a cause but at one point had suggested bad weather could have contributed to the crash.
The office of Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General said that “all possible scenarios are being examined.”
As the first seven survivors arrived back in the country on December 26, Azerbaijan observed a national day of mourning. Burials of four of those who lost their lives were conducted during the day, with additional funerals expected in the coming hours and days.
National flags were flown at half-mast across Azerbaijan, and signals were sounded from vehicles, ships, and trains as the nation observed a moment of silence at noon to honor the victims of the plane crash.
Officials in Baku said the wounded arrived on a special flight arranged by Azerbaijan’s Emergency Affairs Ministry and that the injured were accompanied by medical professionals.
There was no immediate word on the condition of the injured, who were among 29 survivors from the crash, many of whom suffered severe burn wounds.
Ayhan Solomon, Azerbaijan’s chief consul in Aqtau, told reporters that 26 of those killed were Azerbaijani citizens.
He said initial reports indicate that 16 Azerbaijani citizens survived. “Of those, 10 to 12 are in good condition and others remain critically stable,” he added.
Azerbaijan Airlines’ supervisory board said on December 26 that the families of those killed will be compensated with 40,000 manats ($23,460), while those injured would receive 20,000 manats ($11,730).
Along with the 42 Azerbaijani citizens, those aboard Flight J2-8243 were listed as 16 Russian nationals, six from Kazakhstan, and three Kyrgyz citizens, officials said.
The survivors include nine Russian citizens, who were flown to Moscow on December 26 by the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry. Three of the Russian survivors were in critical condition, according to Russian health authorities.
Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister Qanat Bozymbaev — who is in charge of a special government commission to investigate the incident — said many of those who died in the crash were not immediately identifiable due to massive burns suffered.
Bozymbaev said the 29 survivors had injuries ranging from moderate to severe, with many also suffering from major burns.
According to Kazakhstan’s Health Ministry, the injured included at least two children and 11 people had been placed in intensive care.
