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For decades now, we the people have been remarkably tolerant of all the nickel-and-diming the air travel industrial complex has unleashed on us. (That’s largely because of rampant industry consolidation that’s made US airlines less competitive and more cartel-like, but that’s a rant for another day.)
Point is, flying sucks. And it’s getting worse.
As if we didn’t have *waves hands at everything* to worry about, airlines are bracing for a slowdown in travel.
Delta, Southwest and American Airlines all cut their first-quarter financial forecasts this week. On top of that, Delta and United said they’re reducing their capacity for summer travel.
It’s not entirely clear why but it may have something to do with the two terrifying plane crashes in the first two months of the year; the lingering memory of Boeing’s door-plug blowout just over a year ago; bad weather leading to delays and cancellations; wildfires; mass layoffs leading people to rein in their expenses; businesses scaling back travel because they don’t know whether tariff policies are going to hamstring their operations …
I’m just spitballing.
Actually, it’s all of those things, as my colleague Chris Isidore reported Tuesday.
“We saw a pretty immediate stall in both corporate travel and bookings,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said at an investor conference Tuesday. “Consumer confidence and certainty in air travel started to wane a little bit as questions of safety came in.”
Consumers are smart, and they’re starting to think 2025 might be a good year to stay inside with a good book. (If we’re still allowed those.)
That’s bad news for anyone planning to fly this year. When airlines pull back, the experience of flying gets suckier.
“Reduced capacity” is industry-speak for fewer flights. That means the flights that do happen will likely be expensive and packed to the gills. And, when those summer storms inevitably hit, there’ll be fewer options for rebooking.
In response, airlines will be incentivized to extract maximum value from its customers. Which means — you guessed it — more and/or worse fees.
Southwest already got that party started on Tuesday, when it decided to ditch the one little luxury it allowed its customers: free checked bags.
Starting at the end of May, the airline will charge for checked bags for all customers save for its “A-List” loyalty members, holders of its branded credit card, or those traveling on business class.
In other words, Southwest — a budget airline that’s been under intense pressure from activist investor Elliott Management — is punishing the folks in the cheap seats for having the audacity to bring clothes on vacation.
“It is clear that the influence of Elliott Management is in control, and they want to make sure the airline is doing what other airlines do, regardless of the fact that Elliott has near-zero airline experience,” airline consultant Mike Boyd tells me.
What more could they take from us?!
Never underestimate the power of airlines to cleverly wring more money from its customers.
During the pandemic, airlines eliminated change fees — those surcharges you’d pay for changing your itinerary — in attempt to woo customers who were reluctant to book travel. But carriers have slowly sneaked some those fees back, in some cases simply building them into their lowest-price fares.
Oh, and you know how annoying it is to board a plane, with people lining up and spilling into the hallway and generally looking like lost sheep? That’s a feature, not a bug, as my colleague Nathaniel Meyersohn wrote back in 2023. Airlines could absolutely make boarding easier on everyone, including their own staff. But they recognize they can make money off the folks who are willing to pay to avoid the scrum.
“Watch for all sorts of cabin seating games,” Boyd said. For example, a “fear-factor seat selection fee,” in which free seat selection is limited. “The consumer is still guaranteed a seat, but there is no assurance that what the airline assigns will be a window or an aisle or adjacent to one’s travel companion.”
Bottom line: If there’s a silver lining to all this, Chris tells me, it’s that less demand for seats — from fear of flying or economic calamity or otherwise — would make airfares cheaper. “Few things bring down prices quicker than a recession.”
