Inflation eased a bit in February to 2.8% year over year, according to the latest consumer price index. That number was 3.1% in January. The category that’s most responsible for keeping inflation stubborn and sticky is shelter, which rose enough to account for nearly half of the monthly CPI increase.
Meanwhile, inflation for food at home, mostly what consumers buy at the grocery store, came in flat — literally 0%. That’s good news for consumers. So why does a trip to the supermarket still feel so bad?
“There was no change in grocery prices, but there was a lot of movement within categories,” said David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University.
So much movement within categories that a lot of the bad — price hikes — canceled out a lot of the good — price drops.
In February, beef was up nearly 2.5% from January. And of course, eggs were up nearly 10.5%. Meanwhile, lots of categories were down. Bacon fell more than 2%, fruits and vegetables 0.5%.
“From a data perspective, you know, it’s good news,” Ortega said.
Good news because if you’re a little flexible with your grocery list, you can stick to your budget. Maybe skip ground beef and go for chicken.
But doing that kind of math does not make consumers feel good, said Charlotte Ambrozek, a food economist at the University of Minnesota.
“Our preferences are what they are. They’re really hard to move,” she said.
That’s especially true for lower-cost, higher-value items like eggs. “Two things matter: The price of eggs matters, but the price of the thing that I’m substituting also matters,” Ambrozek said.
An alternative like breakfast sausage might be too big of a price leap. And for bakers, there isn’t a perfect substitute for eggs at all.
Plus, after years of high prices and grocery cart trade-offs, people are tired, said Ricky Volpe, an agricultural economist at Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo.
“I think consumer sentiment for food prices right now remains pretty negative,” he said.
Remember, between 2020 and 2024, food prices rose by nearly 24%.
“I think a lot of consumers continue to wait for food prices to come down,” he said. “It’s worth pointing out they almost never do.”
And that just feels bad. Even for people whose wages are keeping up.
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