‘Minecraft’ Movie Reviews Are In, And A Billion Dollar Haul Is Nigh

I’m not sure I’ve seen worse trailers than the spots that have aired for A Minecraft Movie, the live-action hybrid of the famed video game starring Jack Black and Jason Momoa. Now, reviews are in for what looked like a likely disaster of a movie and they are…honestly, better than expected.

No, the Minecraft movie did not reach “fresh” among critics, but it does have a 53% score, a coinflip over which critics liked it and which did not. The trailer told me it didn’t look like a movie that would grab above a 20%, but there is reportedly chemistry between Black and Momoa, a great Jennifer Coolidge subplot, and there are enough fun integrations with the game to be enjoyable, bad greenscreens or otherwise.

Why do I believe that Minecraft is headed toward a billion dollar haul at the box office despite middling reviews? Two main reasons:

• This is Minecraft, we’re talking about, the literal best-selling game in the history of time, moving an estimated 300 million units since its debut in 2011, becoming a childhood staple of million of kids across the world as they’ve grown up, and it remains hugely popular to this day. And Minecraft fans are not picking apart the quality of greenscreens in a trailer. They see their beloved world, they see Jack Black being silly, they see Jason Momoa in a funny outfit and that’s enough. Reportedly, estimates have opening weekend at $135 million to $150 million globally on a $150 million budget.
• Second, this is almost exactly what happened with The Super Mario Bros. Movie. The animated feature that had a close to identical 59% critic scores, but a stellar 95% audience score among fans who were always going to love the (admittedly somewhat average) movie no matter what. Super Mario Bros. went on to earn $1.3 billion globally. While Mario is a massive video game icon, do not underestimate how iconic Minecraft itself is among a certain generation (or two). I doubt that Minecraft will top Mario Bros., but can it hit a billion dollars? My guess is yes.

There are just some things that movie critics and snobbier viewers don’t “get,” and much of the time, that has been video game adaptations that are beloved by either core gamers or young audiences that are allowed to be just “okay”.” I’m also reminded of the $291 million that Five Nights at Freddy’s earned on an impossibly small budget. This happens more often than you think, and I think we are definitely on the way to this happening with Minecraft, and of course, that will mean sequels are in tow.

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