A month into the second Trump administration, I think it is fair to conclude that the American empire in its current form is collapsing. The post-1945 global order, with the United States at its apex, is no more. America itself is not going anywhere—at least not yet—but the foundation of the empire, namely its structure of alliances and partnerships, has been dealt irreparable damage. Western Europe, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and especially Canada now view America with suspicion if not outright hostility, and they are right to do so.
Now, the history of empires is the story of their rise and inevitable fall. As Herodotus wrote about Greek city-states, “most of those which were great once are small today; and those which used to be small were great in my own time.” But nobody has matched this current downfall for sheer egregious stupidity.
Indeed, it’s hard to think of even a single competitor for that title. There have been, to be sure, many idiotic imperial leaders throughout history who helped blow up their empires through bungling and mistakes. Tsar Nicholas II was an incompetent boob whose closest adviser was a charlatan mystic, and he personally led the failed military effort during the First World War that eventually destroyed his regime. Yet Russia bore only a small share of the blame for starting the war in the first place, and other much better-governed empires like Germany and Austria-Hungary, which shared much of that blame, also collapsed because of the war’s strains.
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The eventual collapse of the Western Roman Empire began when a large Roman army was heavily defeated by Goths, who had adopted many Roman military tactics. The Eastern European Empire persisted for another thousand years, but it too eventually collapsed following military defeat at the hands of the Ottomans.
That is how empires tend to fall. Either they are defeated in battle, and are conquered or collapse, or they suffer a succession crisis and fall apart (both often enabled by corruption and mismanagement). Or they are simply eclipsed by another power, as happened when the British Empire fell short and the U.S. succeeded it.
President Trump, by contrast, was handed an empire in splendid condition. The core alliance of NATO was stronger than it had been in decades, as Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine pushed Sweden and Finland to join. Thanks to President Biden’s policies, the American economy was the envy of the world, with a post-pandemic recovery that outstripped any peer nation. The dollar was still by far the most important reserve currency, and the U.S. still had control over global financial pipelines.
No serious threats were on the horizon, either. In its war with Ukraine, Russia has burned through most of its gigantic stockpile of Soviet-era military hardware, taken perhaps 800,000 casualties, and put its economy under terrific pressure. China, while the only peer competitor the U.S. has faced since 1991, is saddled with deep economic difficulties and looking down the barrel of population collapse.
Trumpism strikes directly at the heart of American power projection: trust.
But Trump and Musk are blowing America’s imperial foundations to kingdom come. Take USAID, which as the largest distributor of humanitarian aid in the world, has both done a tremendous amount of good work and also served as a carrot for America’s global predominance—until now. The agency has been all but dismantled, unleashing havoc all over the globe. HIV and drug-resistant tuberculosis are now spreading unchecked in many countries reliant on USAID medication, both proving America cannot be trusted and threatening outbreaks of those diseases in the U.S. itself.
Both Trump and Musk have attacked NATO; Trump has reportedly said he wants to withdraw from the alliance, while Musk has said it “needs an overhaul” and he wonders why it “continued to exist.” More importantly, Trump has repeatedly suggested annexing Canada, a NATO member. The enormous implications of this threat are clearly not getting through to many American elites. At The New York Times, Peter Baker has a column blithely speculating about which way Canadians might vote should they be annexed, concluding that Democrats would likely benefit.
But this is not a political parlor game for Canadians. They are incandescently furious, and they are right to be. Canada stood shoulder to shoulder by America through the great bloodbaths of the 20th century. Since then, it has been a quietly loyal neighbor, making not a peep of trouble along the world’s longest land border, and providing a vast supply of energy, mineral, timber, and other exports to fuel the American economy. And this is the thanks they get: A senile fascist American president who suggests a war of conquest—and make no mistake, that is what it would take—because he wants to make America look big but doesn’t understand how the Mercator projection exaggerates the size of northern land masses—which, it’s been reported, is one reason for his coveting Greenland, too.
Baker’s witless speculation isn’t even correct. Canadians, if they got to vote under American occupation—a big if—would obviously elect a Canadian nationalist party.
Trumpism strikes directly at the heart of American power projection: trust. NATO members and other partners go along with the American-led order because it has been a pretty good deal, all things considered. Rather than exacting imperial tribute, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and the others were encouraged to develop and become rich. In return, they allowed the U.S. to develop overwhelming military dominance, and played along with our control over the global financial system.
Threatening unprovoked war on a NATO ally for no reason destroys this trust—indeed, it makes clear that America is now a rogue state, led by erratic, violent madmen. Even Hitler felt he had to make up some lying pretext about German minorities being oppressed before he stole the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia. Trump just saw a map and thought, “I’ll have that.”
Something similar is true of Trump’s threatened tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and Europe. We have pre-existing trade agreements with those countries—indeed, the one with Canada and Mexico was signed by Trump himself. Yet Trump will break his word on a whim.
Again, the lesson is clear: America cannot be trusted, and all its former allies should start preparing for the worst, including developing their own nuclear deterrents in case of war with the U.S. itself. Some reserve currency replacement must be found, and new supply chains not reliant on the U.S. set up. Crash military buildups must be carried out to replace American security guarantees. You’d be a fool to rely on any American promises whatsoever, including ones made by Trump or Musk. These men lie as easily as they breathe.
Now, should it annex Canada, Greenland, and/or anywhere else that catches Trump’s fancy, America would set up a new and different empire, much smaller and weaker, based around explicit violent threats rather than alliances.
But it also might just fall to bits. Musk and his DOGE neo-Nazi teens have been firing tens of thousands of federal workers willy-nilly. The results have not yet been catastrophic domestically: utter chaos at national parks, an apparent sharp increase in airline crashes, and other problems.
But the DOGE Muskjugend recently illegally fired many of the workers who secure America’s nuclear arsenal, apparently by accident, and they are rooting around in the IRS and the Social Security Administration (prompting the head of the latter agency to resign), which hold much of the most sensitive data in the government. It’s not hard to imagine this going world-historically bad.
America suffered no military defeat. We were not outstripped economically by a bigger or better-organized competitor. Rather, we elected an insane tyrant who is blowing up the foundation of our international power for no reason, all while he lets a South African immigrant ultra-billionaire and his crew of teenybopper fascists tear the wiring out of the federal government—again, for no reason.
Never underestimate the destructive power of stupidity.
