Poll shows most Marylanders oppose tax increases to erase $3 billion budget deficit

This article was republished with permission from WTOP’s news partners at Maryland Matters. Sign up for Maryland Matters’ free email subscription today.

A majority of Marylanders oppose tax increases to erase a nearly $3 billion budget deficit projected for the coming fiscal year, a political challenge — and risk — for Gov. Wes Moore (D).

The results of a poll released Tuesday by Annapolis-based Gonzales Research & Media are unsurprising, but they may not be welcome news for Moore, who has yet to fulfill some of his biggest promises as he eyes re-election and perhaps a run for president.

“What we’re talking about is the deficit, and the reality is that there is very little appetite for any kind of tax increase,” pollster Patrick Gonzales said.

“Voters constantly express a willingness to pay taxes for needed services like transportation and public safety, but not for a problem they believe their elected representatives created,” he said.

Moore and Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore) have said that there will be a “high bar” for any tax increases in 2025. While neither has indicated that the standard has been met, both have indicated some willingness to have the discussion.

Personal income, property and sales taxes represent three of the largest revenue sources for the state. No proposal has been made public and the Gonzales poll focused only on support or opposition for each tax.

More than three of four people who responded said they oppose an increase in the income tax rate. That majority opposition cuts across political affiliations, racial and age demographics.

Similarly, 73% said they oppose an increase in the sales tax. When it comes to property tax increases, 77% said they were opposed.

Property tax increases have been quietly floated in recent weeks as one way to ease a $1.3 billion, six-year deficit in the Transportation Trust Fund.

“We tried to be as straightforward as possible and give some context,” Gonzales said.

Gonzales surveyed 811 registered voters who said they are likely to vote in the next election. The poll asked voters about Moore and other issues including the taxes to resolve the budget deficit and a potential match-up for governor between Moore and Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan.

The poll, conducted between Dec. 27- Jan. 4, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%.

Within those who oppose those new taxes, a significant group that told the pollster that Moore has done a good job through two years in office.

In that poll, 61% of people surveyed said they approved of the job done by Moore. Another 28% said they disapproved and 11% gave no opinion.

Those results are slightly lower but statistically flat to result from a September Gonzales poll, when 64% of those polled said they approved of Moore’s performance.

“If I were governor of Maryland, I would take these approval numbers,” Gonzales said.

Beneath the placid surface, however, there are some signs of wavering support.

Within that approval number are about 29% who said they strongly approved of Moore’s efforts and another 32% that said they somewhat approved of the governor’s job performance. In the September poll, nearly 39% said they strongly approved and 25% said they somewhat approved.

Gonzales said the results of his most recent poll reflect “a softening of intensity of approval.”

Deficits, taxes, and political capital

The December Gonzales Poll does not delve into possible reasons for the change. The wobble could be accentuated by how Moore’s efforts to address the deficit are received by the public.

When it comes to an income tax increase, 67% of those who “strongly approve” of Moore’s job performance oppose an income tax increase. Sixty-two percent of those who strongly approved of Moore’s performance opposed a sales tax increase. And 71% of those who “strongly approve” of Moore’s performance oppose a property tax increase.

“That’s a problem for him (Moore),” said Gonzales. “That’s a problem for any human being. How will he deal with it? I don’t have any idea but over the next 90 days he’s going to have to make some hard choices.”

Included in that, Gonzales said, are swaths of Democrats in the House and Senate who do favor increases, and special interest groups — including the Maryland State Education Association and American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, who will be working to protect massive increases in education spending and promises to hire more state workers.

Moore tops Hogan in hypothetical contest

Speculation has increased over the political future of both the current governor and that of Hogan.

Moore is considered to be a hopeful for a presidential bid in 2028.But before that, he faces re-election for governor in 2026. There is speculation that Hogan, a Republican who recently lost a bid for U.S. Senate to Angela Alsobrooks, could  tee up another bid for governor.

Hogan, the first two-term Republican governor since Theodore McKeldin, was immensely popular in the polls during his eight years in office. Voter discontent over the economy or taxes — which Hogan vehemently and vocally opposed — could lay the groundwork for a repeat of the 2014 election that saw him into his first term.

The poll released Tuesday shows Hogan — who has not publicly signaled an intent to run again — trailing Moore by 14 points, 52% to 38%. Another 10% said they were undecided.

“When I look at the results of this poll, my first impression is how strikingly similar it is to the results of the election we just had and the contest between Hogan and now-Sen. Alsobrooks,” Gonzales said.

“His (Hogan’s) problem in this poll is the same thing I think he suffered from on Election Day,” Gonzales said. “You have to have 30% of Democrats cross over and vote for you if a Republican wants to win in Maryland. In this poll, we have him at 18%. That’s just not going to do it.”

A lot can change after the next 90 days of the coming legislative session and in the year before the 2026 campaign begins in earnest, Gonzales said.

“This is a hypothetical and if (Moore) and the legislature raise taxes in a way that turns off voters — and raising taxes always turns off voters — it makes a scenario where all of a sudden Larry Hogan, at nearly age 70, can reinvent himself as a back-to-the-future candidate where he says, ‘We didn’t have these kinds of problems, we didn’t raise taxes like this,’” Gonzales said. “We don’t know what the landscape will look like in 90 days or even a year.”