April 3rd, 2025: Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo leads by what seems to be an insurmountable margin in first round preference polling. However, New York State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani has been gaining supporter quite consistently, and has almost tripled his support since January. On April 3rd, Mayor Eric Adams announced that he would be dropping out of the primary and running as an Independent, but we are yet to have any polling without him since then.
Using all available public polling, the model excludes all undecided voters, and each round eliminates the worst performing candidate, distributing their votes proportionally.
Several of the polls include cross-tab information as to how voters in the four different boroughs would vote in the first round of the primary. Calculating how candidate’s support in boroughs correlates to their citywide support, their borough polling numbers are adjusted to account for current citywide averages, and undecided voters are discounted.
All publicly available polls are included in the model and averages, and are weighted solely by their sample size, sample type (likely voters or registered voters), and how recently the poll was conducted. Currently the length of time in which polls are included in the average is pretty wide, but the “recency bias” increases dramatically as election day draw closer.
