Three swing states have shifted back toward Vice President Kamala Harris in the past week, according to the latest Silver Bulletin model.
Over the last month, all major battleground states have been shifting to former President Donald Trump. But in a ray of hope for the Harris campaign, the latest model by statistician and polling aggregator Nate Silver shows that in the last week, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia have made shifts to the Democrats.
Newsweek has emailed the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment.
Silver’s national model currently puts Harris at 48.6 percent of the vote to Trump’s 47.4 percent.
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According to the model, there has been a 0.2-point increase for the Democrats in Michigan over the last week. That means Harris leads with 48.1 percent to Trump’s 47.4 percent.
In 2016, Trump was the first Republican since the 1988 to carry Michigan, which has 15 Electoral College votes in 2024.
In Wisconsin, which has historically voted Democrat with the exception of 2016, Harris leads by Trump 0.5 points, having gained 0.2 points over the last week.
Along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is part of the “Blue Wall” that helped Joe Biden to victory four years ago.
Harris is also beginning to make inroads in Georgia, with the latest Silver Bulletin model showing she has a 0.1-point increase in votes from last week. However, Trump continues to lead with a 1.4-point advantage.
In recent days, the Harris campaign has been courting Georgia, where the Black population—at about 30 percent—is higher than in any other battleground state.
Last Thursday, former President Obama headlined a rally for Harris in Clarkson, Georgia. He was joined by celebrities including singer Bruce Springsteen and actor Samuel L. Jackson.
Should Black voters in Georgia turn out for Harris next week, she could win the state.
However, the shifts in Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia are relatively small. As it stands, Harris is leading in only two of the seven battleground states in Silver’s model—Michigan and Wisconsin. If the model is accurate and the election were held today, Trump would win the election with 289 electoral college votes to Harris’ 249.
According to the latest forecast, Trump leads in Arizona by 2.1 points and by 1.3 in North Carolina.
Harris and Trump are even in Nevada, thanks to Trump’s 0.6-point increase to level Harris’ 47.9 percent in the last week.
In Pennsylvania—the golden goose of the battleground states thanks to its 19 electoral votes—Harris and Trump remain tight, with Harris 0.3 points behind.
Pollsters and political analysts have generally agreed that Pennsylvania will decide the winner of the 2024 election.
Since 1948, No Democrat has won the presidency without winning Pennsylvania. The state has also chosen the overall winner in 48 of the 59 U.S. presidential elections.
