States may soon get more or less transport funding depending on how high or low their birth and marriage rates are. Newsweek has broken down which stand to lose out and which stand to benefit.
The Context
At the beginning of this month, it was reported that Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy had signed an undated memo directing the Department of Transportation (DOT) to give precedence to “communities with marriage and birth rates higher than the national average.”
It said: “To the maximum extent permitted by law, DOT-supported or -assisted programs and activities, including without limitation, all DOT grants, loans, contracts, and DOT-supported or -assisted State contracts, shall prioritize projects and goals that … to the extent practicable, relevant, appropriate, and consistent with law, mitigate the unique impacts of DOT programs, policies, and activities on families and family-specific difficulties, such as the accessibility of transportation to families with young children, and give preference to communities with marriage and birth rates higher than the national average.”
The Department of Transportation told Newsweek: “One of DOT’s main objectives is to fund safe and efficient infrastructure throughout the U.S. As projects are evaluated, many factors will be considered, including areas with strong population growth.”
It comes amid the U.S.’s declining birth rate, with the country’s fertility rate projected by the Congressional Budget Office to average 1.60 births per woman over the next three decades—well below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman required to maintain a stable population without immigration.
This issue has frequently been featured in the current political discourse, with Vice President JD Vance saying in a speech on January 24, “I want more babies in the United States of America.”
States Set To Lose From Birth Rate-Dependent Funding
The five states with the lowest fertility rates, which usually correlate with birth rates, are Vermont (44.3 per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44), Oregon (47.3), Rhode Island (47.5), New Hampshire (47.9) and Massachusetts (48.7).
This is according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s data from 2022, the most recent year for which these official figures are available.
In 2022, Vermont recorded 5,316 births, Oregon 39,493, Rhode Island 10,269, New Hampshire, 12,077 and Massachusetts 68,584.
All of these states, except New Hampshire, are currently Democratic-led.
CDC
Newsweek has contacted health departments for each of these states, via email, for comment.
Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey’s office directed Newsweek to Healey’s statement made at a press conference last week.
“I do not know what marriage rates or birth rates have to do with transportation, I’ve gotta be honest,” she said, “I’ve really tried here but I do not see the connection and, you know, we’re a state that’s really serious about ensuring that our residents or businesses have access to the highest-quality public transit in the entire country.”
She added: “To see something out from President Trump, and his administration, that would undermine transportation is very concerning to me as Governor, it’s concerning to governors around the country, because people rely on transportation..”
States Set To Win From Birth-Rate Dependant Funding
The five states with the highest fertility rates, according to the CDC’s data, are South Dakota (66.5), Alaska (064.9), Nebraska (63.6), North Dakota (62) and Texas (61.9).
In 2022, South Dakota recorded 11,201 births, Alaska 9,359, Nebraska 24,345, North Dakota 9,567 and Texas 389,741. All of these states are Republican-led.
Newsweek reached out to the health departments for each of these states via email for comment.
South Dakota Governor Larry Rhoden’s office directed Newsweek to comments made by former Governor Kristi Noem during her State of the State Address before she left to become Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.
Noem said: “South Dakota still has the highest birth rate of any state in America. Our people are happy and have hope for our future. Every baby brings boundless potential. We are caring for South Dakota moms and babies both before birth and after. Last year, we talked about the first thousand days of a child’s life – from conception to their 2nd birthday. These days are the most crucial to a child’s development.”
Governor Rhoden echoed these thoughts in his introductory speech to a joint session of the state legislature last month: “We will continue to care for families as they start and grow. That means taking care of both mothers and their children.”
Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty
What Are Poeple Saying
Connecticut Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal said the directive was “deeply frightening,” and Washington Democratic Senator Patty Murray called it “disturbingly dystopian.”
Senor director of infrastructure and housing policy at the left-leaning Center for American Progress, Kevin DeGood said: “Distributing transportation funding based marriage and birth rates is bizarre and a little creepy. States and regions with aging populations tend, on average, to have lower birth rates … Are they somehow not deserving of transportation investment?”
Tennessee Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn, who spoke about tying transport funding to population growth during Duffy’s confirmation hearing, said: “People are leaving some of these blue states and coming to places like Tennessee. And this means that we need to look at where those federal highway dollars are spent and placing them in areas with growing needs rather than areas that are losing population.”
Update 2/13/25, 9:54 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from the Department of Transportation.
