Miami, Florida
IN A NORMAL TIME AND STATE, Matt Gaetz’s political future would be over after Monday’s release of a damning 36-page House Ethics Committee report accusing the Florida Republican of “statutory rape,” paying women for sex, illicit drug use, and other conduct unbecoming of a congressman.
But these are not normal times. It’s the Trump era. And this is not a normal state. Gaetz hails from Florida, the heart of MAGAville.
And in the aftermath of Monday’s bombshell revelations, operatives and political pros here said they really could see Gaetz—now radioactive—making a successful return to elected office.
“There was a time I would say he was done—there was a time politicians would disappear just for having an affair—but those days are gone,” said Kevin Wagner, a Florida pollster and political scientist.
“The short answer is I don’t know what happens to Matt Gaetz,” Wagner said. “The incoming president could endorse him in 2026, and in that case, I wouldn’t bet against him in Florida.”
Gaetz has hinted that he’s not done with politics, even if politicians in D.C. want to be done with him. Just a day before the report’s release, the ex-congressman was met with applause at Turning Point USA’s America Fest in Phoenix, where he floated the idea of running for governor or Senate. And there’s a good chance Trump would endorse Gaetz, whom he nominated to be the next attorney general before his hasty withdrawal, should Gaetz choose to jump into either race.
“Matt never got a commitment from the big guy to endorse him in 2026; he probably knew it was too much of an ask,” said a Trump adviser familiar with the discussions between the two men when Gaetz withdrew his nomination. But, the adviser noted: “Could Donald Trump endorse Matt Gaetz? Definitely. Matt is loyal. Matt is MAGA. But he needs to earn it like everyone else.”
That Gaetz is considering a run at all underscores just how unmoored and raucous the political ecosystem has become. In the past, a bipartisan ethics report by one’s colleagues would be deeply problematic on its own; one in which findings of statutory rape were made public would be a political death knell.
But if there is one truism in contemporary politics, it’s that the key to overcoming scandal is perseverance.
For Gaetz to run again would be an act of hubris. For him to win—and many observers understandably have doubts about whether he could—would require an embrace of the playbook perfected by Trump, who survived sex scandals, indictments, a conviction, and even an assassination attempt or two to recapture the presidency.
Already, the groundwork is being laid to get Gaetz to run once more. On Monday, MAGA operatives were lashing out at the Ethics Committee report, treating it as a form of political propaganda engineered by establishment lawmakers to remove a perpetual thorn in their side. Steve Bannon, a Trump adviser and the host of the War Room podcast influential in MAGAville, urged Gaetz to “return to Congress on its first day next year and take a page from that old song the ‘Harper Valley P.T.A.’ and expose all the hypocrites in the House who have used tax money to cover up their sexual depravity.”
Bannon’s bet is that the no-apologies-no-fucks-given approach that Trump has perfected can be adopted by his acolytes, even if it hasn’t worked for others (see: Lake, Kari). Some fellow Republicans agree that negative saturation media coverage isn’t as deadly as it used to be, especially in GOP politics, and that politicians with their own standalone brands like Gaetz are better built than others to survive scandal when scandal no longer seems scandalous.
“The political culture in this country has become much more secular, but the press still tries and treat it with a sanctity and purity that our primary voters no longer seem to,” said Ryan Tyson, adviser to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and a polling coordinator for billionaire Elon Musk’s political committee that backed Trump.
“There’s a sense of pearl-clutching by the media that voters don’t get. And people don’t believe the media like they used to,” he said. “And I’ll bet if we tested this, more primary voters than you think will say ‘He’s married, he’s moved on, and this is a political hit job.’ That’s why I won’t say he’s done.”
Gaetz has said as much since it became evident that the Ethics Committee report would be made public. He has portrayed himself, to a degree, as the mythical Icarus who fell to earth after flying too close to the sun—in his case, having possibly snorted it.
He has also denied wrongdoing, calling the investigation politically motivated and spending Monday morning suing to block the report’s release. He took to X to highlight facts the report left out.
In particular, Gaetz has noted that federal prosecutors examined the case for three years but never brought charges against him due to a lack of solid evidence and concerns about the credibility of the witnesses, including the 17-year-old he allegedly had sex with in 2017. One of those times, she said, he gave her $400 cash. But when she gave a deposition in a separate civil lawsuit, the woman denied she was “escorting” or doing “sex work” in 2017, and she also said she didn’t think she was “trafficked”—statements that help explain why federal prosecutors didn’t charge Gaetz with sex-trafficking.
BUT THE ETHICS COMMITTEE REPORT REMAINS damning, especially its findings that he paid fifteen women tens of thousands of dollars, and many of them indicated it was for sex. And then there’s the issue of “statutory rape.” Under Florida state law, it is a second-degree felony for a person older than 24 to have sex with a person who is 16 or 17. The three-year statute of limitations expired four years ago, so Gaetz could not be charged with that crime, said Dave Aronberg, a Democrat and former state attorney from Palm Beach County who has monitored the case for years. That Gaetz’s political future depends, to a degree, on the statute of limitations for statutory rape having lapsed is another matter.
In interviews with a dozen top Florida Republican insiders and Trump world figures, many expected that Gaetz would take some time away from elected politics to let the stench drift off a bit.
“Matt is done, at least for the next two years,” said another top Republican operative in the state. “Let me amend that: Not dead yet.”
The ex-congressman has landed a gig as a paid primetime commentator on the right-wing One America News Network, a platform that gives him a measure of exposure with conservative voters while he plots his next move. One close ally who talked to Gaetz said the former congressman should take a page from The Godfather.
“He should lay low for a while, go to Sicily like Michael Corleone and then come back for his revenge,” the ally said.
A primary bid for Senate or governor would be tricky, considering the lurid details in the ethics report, not to mention the other individuals expected to jump into those races. Rep. Byron Donalds and Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody are expected to run statewide for one of the two seats. Public and private polling shared with The Bulwark showed both Republicans had good name ID but without the baggage and high negatives of Gaetz.
One top Florida operative with ties to Trump’s operation argued that the Ethics Committee report would give Gaetz’s GOP opponents fodder in ways that would actually resonate with primary voters. The operative pointed to a section of the report where Gaetz and his then-associate, former Seminole County Tax Collector Joel Greenberg, allegedly were short on cash and asked at one point for a “customer appreciation” discount from some of the women with whom they had sex.
“The report is just an embarrassment of riches for a negative ad campaign. A ‘customer appreciation’ discount, I mean, come on,” the operative said. “But is Matt Gaetz done? I just can’t tell anymore.”
Steve Vancore, a Florida Democratic pollster, said of Gaetz: “I don’t know if he is toast. If it is played off as a Democratic witch hunt and he becomes a martyr, it could elevate him in a primary.”
Vancore said Republican and Florida voters are just different nowadays.
“I mean we have a guy headed back to the White House who admitted to enjoying inappropriately grabbing women in their private parts (euphemism alert) and has a series of felony convictions etc etc.,” Vancore said in a text message. “So I think it is fair to say that culture warriors often get a pass. Short answer is ¯_(ツ)_/¯”
