Since this is the first season of the 12-team format, the CFP is under a microscope. It doesn’t help that Indiana and SMU, regarded as two of the shakier teams going into the CFP, lost largely noncompetitive games to Notre Dame and Penn State, respectively. But as Matt Lepay, the radio voice of Wisconsin football and basketball noted, that’s not exactly new.
After SMU’s 38-10 loss to Penn State on Saturday, Lepay noted on X (formerly Twitter) that in the four-team CFP era, blowouts were frequent. He also called out those covering the sport who haven’t made that point.
“Just wondering whether anyone who covers college football has mentioned that in the ten years of a FOUR team playoff, 14 of 30 games were decided by at least 20 points,” Lepay said. “This includes 5 of 10 title games. (Still, I plan to watch the next 2 games today/tonight. You never know…)”
Just wondering whether anyone who covers college football has mentioned that in the ten years of a FOUR team playoff, 14 of 30 games were decided by at least 20 points. This includes 5 of 10 title games.
(Still, I plan to watch the next 2 games today/tonight. You never know…)— Matt Lepay (@MattLepay) December 21, 2024
Lepay’s note is correct.
The semifinals we saw in the final two years of the four-team CFP might have clouded some memories about how consistently bad those games were. In five of 10 years, both CFP semifinal games had double-digit margins. The last two tears featured a pair of great semifinal games, which were all decided by seven points or fewer. Those were the only two years where both semifinals were one-score games. In fact, the average semifinal margin of victory in the four-team era was nearly 18 points.
And while the last two years did produce great semifinals, they didn’t produce great finals, with Georgia beating TCU 65-7 and Michigan handling Washington 31-14. The average National Championship Game margin of victory during the four-team era was more than 20 points. Certainly, Georgia’s win over TCU drives that number up. Still, four of the 10 games in question were decided by 20 points or more and two others were decided by 15 or more.
If we got as many complete duds as we got in the four-team era, it only stands to reason that we’re going to see more in the 12-team era. It’s inevitable. Not only are there more teams involved but the first-round games are true home games.
Make no mistake, blowouts aren’t fun to watch. Certainly, we can expect modifications to the selection and seeding of the CFP going forward, particularly if blowouts become the norm. But we don’t have to reinvent the wheel every time we see a lopsided CFP game — especially when we haven’t in the past.
[Matt Lepay on X]
